Unemployment in the USA

🇺🇸📉 The Fed could be facing the loss of up to a million American jobs in the review process‼️

🔸 Job growth in the United States was likely much less robust than originally estimated through March, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may fall further behind on lower interest rates.

🔸 Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. expect preliminary revisions by the government on Wednesday to show that payrolls growth was at least 600,000 weaker through March than currently estimated – about 50,000 a month. While JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s forecasters see around a 360,000 decrease, Goldman Sachs says it could be as much as a million.

🔸 Preliminary data contain several warnings, but the downward revision of more than 501,000 jobs would be the largest in 15 years, suggesting that the labor market may cool for a longer – and perhaps more – than originally thought. Final figures are expected early next year.

🔸 Based on current standings, BLS data show that the economy added 2.9 million new jobs in the 12 months through March 2024, or an average of 242,000 monthly. Even if the total revision reaches a million, monthly job gains would still average around 158,000 – a healthy pace of hiring, but a moderation from the post-pandemic peak.

Unemployment could be around 5.37% based on this data.