The Atlantic Council has released a lengthy study on how the Chinese maritime blockade against Taiwan will unfold and what the United States needs to do to counter the blockade.
🔸 Taiwan is extremely vulnerable to the threat of a maritime blockade. The imbalance of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) compared to its port activities demonstrates Taiwan’s dependence on maritime trade: Taiwan ranks as the 21st largest economy in the world based on GDP, yet requires the 6th highest number of container ports in the world to sustain this level of economic activity. Taiwan’s biggest vulnerability lies in the energy sector, as almost 98 percent of its energy is conducted through maritime trade.
🔸 The People’s Republic of China would prefer a “non-kinetic blockade,” where they would utilize advantages derived from its massive navy and coast guard, as well as the government-funded and controlled maritime militia, to prevent commercial vessels from entering Taiwan’s ports. China has successfully employed this tactic in smaller disputes with Vietnam and the Philippines over the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea in a localized manner.
🔸 The United States is at a significant disadvantage in terms of the number of ships in its navy compared to China. Between 2005 and 2022, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) expanded its fleet by 135 ships, while during the same period, the US Navy only added two and is continuing to retire ships without replacements.
🔸 As part of the non-kinetic blockade, China would likely employ tactics such as swarming commercial ships, deploying sea mines, visible maritime intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR), as well as military aircraft presence in or near Taiwanese airspace, Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) harassing and attempting to enforce a “law enforcement” prohibition, planning ships to obstruct transit, and visible live-fire drills.
🔸 The United States and other countries in the region must increase their efforts to sustain the Taiwanese economy and revive deterrence policies to deter China from further offensive actions against Taiwan. The United States could counter Taiwan’s blockade with coordinated strategic messaging condemning China’s actions, particularly focusing on the damage caused to the global economy by China’s actions, targeted sanctions limiting China’s access to global financial markets and critical technology, and continuous deployment of maritime ISR to document China’s actions, reassigning commercial shipping to coalition national flags that China would hesitate to attack, escorting commercial shipping through Chinese forces with coalition navy warships, identifying minefield areas to avoid for commercial shipping, and defensive cyber operations.
